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NEW AUTHORS SHOWCASE
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29-03-09 6M P2
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Tipping Point by Simon Rosser |
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SYNOPSIS Stanton had been a climate scientist for most of his adult life. Employed by the Met Office in London for the last eighteen years, he had for the previous eight months or so, been seconded to a project called RAPID being conducted by the National Oceanography Center in Southampton. Stanton had been given the task of assimilating and re-analysing all the data that had been amassed by the RAPID project since its inception in 2001. As Stanton completed the final touches to his presentation paper he began to feel a little unnerved as he realised he was the only scientist that now knew the genuine results of the painstaking scientific research of the projects main goal, that of investigating rapid climate change, specifically in relation to the Ocean Thermohaline Circulation, or Atlantic Ocean Conveyor as it is more commonly known. It was Stanton's task to give a presentation to the prestigious IPCC. The report would then be submitted to the RAPID team and published, in various scientific journals, followed by most of the worlds newspapers no doubt shortly afterwards. It wasn't the first time Stanton had provided information to the IPCC. Ten years earlier he had been asked to contribute to the Third Assessment Report, which was released in 2001. Stanton's contribution dealt with the likely increase in sea level as a result of global warming. His findings had been criticised and rejected by his peers at the time, but he hadn't given a damn. He had thought he was right then, and knew he was right now. His predictions it turned out had been quite accurate, if a little under estimated as sea level rise had in fact accelerated. He now found himself getting ready to reveal to the scientific world his latest, most worrying contribution to the science of climate change. The IPCC had been set up by the World Meteorological Organization and by the United Nations Environment Programme to gather data on climate change from scientists and researchers from all over the world. It's main aim, was to understand the risks of human induced climate change. The IPCC had released its first report on the subject back in 1990, and the most recent in 2007. It's value as an organisation in relation to climate change and global warming could not be overstated. Stanton felt very privileged to have contributed to the IPCC report back then, but he felt a little uneasy about the presentation he would soon be delivering, owing to the fact that not only was the presentation of his paper going to be controversial, but it also suggested that the effects of global warming were going to be felt much sooner than scientists had previously thought. Stanton's hair stood up on the back of his neck as he considered it. The project Stanton had been working on, RAPID or Rapid Climate Change Programme was looking into what causes rapid changes in climate. Scientists have been aware that the Earth's climate can change rapidly after studying a period called the Younger Dryas when around twelve thousand, nine hundred years ago, just as the world was warming up after the last ice age, a rapid decent back to ice age conditions occurred in as little as ten years or so, believed to have been caused by a shut down of the Atlantic Ocean Thermohaline Circulation. Stanton read over the salient parts of his presentation to check it one final time before finishing for the evening.
... As we all know the Ocean Thermohaline Circulation is an important Atlantic current powered by both heat ( thermo) and salt ( haline ) and it basically brings warm water up from the tropics to northern latitudes. The Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Drift are both features of this current, and without them the Eastern seaboard of the USA, and Northern Europe would be one hell of a lot colder that they currently are. I have been given the task of re-analysing all the data that has been amassed over the previous eight years or so from the equipment measuring the Ocean Thermohaline circulation. The RAPID programme has been measuring ocean current flow since 2001 and the highly sophisticated measuring equipment, placed at different depths right across the Atlantic Ocean basically measure the flow or strength of the current. Since monitoring began it was calculated that there had been perhaps a thirty percent decrease in flow strength, which was considered to be within a natural variation for the system. What I have discovered however is that the measuring devices had been calibrated incorrectly. Twenty-five of the thirty devices used to measure the ocean flow had been set by the manufacturers to measure fresh water flow. The team at RAPID who had been responsible for the initial check and deployment of the system hadn't picked this fact up, but I can't really lay any blame against them as they could have reasonably assumed that the equipment supplied for the task, was suitable. When I re-calibrated the data to take into account the fact that the devices were of course measuring salt water, which is denser than fresh water, the figures revealed a reduction in flow of a staggering forty-eight percent. I carried out further investigations into the problem, and ascertained That twenty-five of the measuring devices had been used in a project on the Amazon river, unknown to RAPID. The Amazon is of course a fresh body of water. This fact laid the foundation to the problems that I have been working on. Scientists have been monitoring the fact that global warming has started to melt Greenland's freshwater glaciers, and an increase in water vapour in the atmosphere is causing greater rainfall, which has, in appears started to weaken the ocean conveyor. The ocean conveyor only works because it relies on both heat and salinity to drive it. Warm water from the tropics begins to cool as it travels northwards, releasing its warmth. Cold water is denser than warm water, and salty water denser than fresh water. As currents of warm salty water cool, the salty dense cold water sinks which completes the loop of the conveyor system and the water then travels back along the sea floor to the tropics. As freshwater from melting ice and increased rainfall has been reducing salinity in Northern latitudes the system has started to shut down, much like if a few links from the tracks of a tank are taken away, it would cause a complete breakdown of the tank’s drive system. The tank would not be able to move. The figures therefore suggest ladies and gentleman, that the Ocean Thermohaline Circulation could possibly be starting to shut down ... |